Bovada Passing Yardage Prop Bets
Blake Bortles vs Tom Brady
If I asked you who would you take to go over on a passing yardage prop, Tom Brady or Blake Bortles. I think most people would take Tom Brady. And, that is why most sportsbooks make a nice profit. These two quarterbacks were both in the news all of 2017 as both teams made it to the playoffs. The hype machine (ESPN) was in full hot air mode as it praised Brady and denigrated Blake Bortles all of last year. For prop betting. The hype machine is pure gold when you know to pay attention to the numbers and not the hype.
The results are from
They tracked over 10,000 Bovada NFL bets from the 2017 season and have made them available to use for free.
For this comparrison I used “Passing” as type of bet to eliminate the rushing yardage prop bets. I then used “Yards” to eliminate the other passing prop bets (completions, interceptions, touchdowns, attempt,). Then of course I entered the players name in the players tab. The next item was to add an “O” in the O/U tab to filter out all of the under bet results. This left me with 16 betting results for Tom Brady and 15 results for Blake Bortles.
Blake Bortles Bovada Passing Yards Odds
Tom Brady Bovada Passing Yardage Odds
Prop Betting Tip
Prop bet odds vary a lot from sportsbook to sportsbook. Also, prop betting limits are lower than side or totals bets. If you want to make money prop betting then you need to have more than one sportsbook. Line shopping is vital to making money. And, when you find that bet you want to hammer the last thing you need is a low betting limit getting in the way. I bet at 8 online sportsbooks so when I find a player I like I just spread the money around to get in all of my action.
If you are in New Jersey then open online accounts at at least two sportsbooks. If you are not going to be in New Jersey then try one of these online sportsbooks.
I used Bovada for the odds but I have to admit. When it comes to prop betting no one offers more odds than 5dimes.eu. If you are going to bet just for a little fun and do not care if you win or lose. Then any of these sportsbooks will do. However, if you want to become a professional or at least try and make a decent profit off of sports betting. Then there are two sportsbooks to look at. For the most prop bets go with 5dimes.eu. If you are a big gambler. Bookmaker.eu is the place to make your bets. They take the big bets and more importantly they payout big winners. This leads me to one online sportsbook that you should never bet at. Sportsbook.com AKA Sportsbook.ag. They have the worst reputation for paying customers on time if ever.
Brady vs Bortles – The Numbers
Take a look at Blake Bortles results and you can see why the hype machine was against him early. He went under the posted yardage total in 4 of his first 5 games. However, he went 8 and 2 to the over after that. The perception of Bortles was already locked in and people who didn’t take time to do research were giving money to the sportsbooks. Now, take a look at Tom Brady. His season started out almost the opposite of Bortles with him going over the total in 2 of his first 3 games. But, after that you would have been donating money to the sportsbook to bet the over. He went over the total only 2 of the next 11 games. For the season Bortles went over on passing yardage prop bets 9 of 15 games and Tom Brady went over 4 out of 12 games.
Because prop betting is a relatively small part of the market sportsbooks make odds on perceptions as much as they do on the numbers. If you had these results in front of you for the last four games of the season would it have changed how you would have bet? These numbers are all from Bovada sportsbook but you would have found similar numbers elsewhere.