New England at Detroit Betting Preview

When: 8:20 PM ET, Sunday, September 23, 2018
Where: Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan
TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.
Betting Line: Patriots -6.5.
Total: 53.5

Patriots (1-1): New England’s defense allowed Jacksonville’s Blake Bortles to throw for 376 yards and four touchdowns in last week’s game. Brady did connect with wideout Chris Hogan for a pair of scoring passes but James White was the leading receiver with seven catches for 73 yards.

Lions (0-2): Matthew Stafford has attempted 99 passes so far this season as the team has been behind early and the Lions have had to play from behind. Kenny Golladay is emerging at a dangerous weapon for Stafford with 13 receptions for a club-high 203 yards and a score. The Lions could be without one of their top defenders with cornerback Darius Slay unable to practice this week due to a concussion.

The charts below are from PropBets.Football:  NFL Player Prop Betting Database. It is free to use

The prop betting results are in a “Over” / “Under” format. With “Over” colored green and “Under” in light red. It is a quick way to see if a player has been beating expectations.

Patriots vs Lions Betting Trends

New England

Patriots are 8-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Patriots are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games.
Patriots are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games on fieldturf.
Patriots are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss.
Patriots are 21-7-2 ATS in their last 30 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Patriots are 26-9 ATS in their last 35 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Patriots are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Patriots are 43-18-1 ATS in their last 62 games following a straight up loss.
Patriots are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in September.
Patriots are 37-18-2 ATS in their last 57 games overall.
Patriots are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Detroit

Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Lions are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games on fieldturf.
Lions are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Lions are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games in Week 3.

Detroit Lions Prop Bet Results

Take a look at the Lions prop betting results and you will see a defense that has done a good job of stopping opposing tight ends. They also did a top notch job of closing down the San Francisco 49ers wide receivers as all of the prop bets offered went under the total. On offense Matthew Stafford has taken advantage of falling behind early to go “over” on his prop bets.

Matthew Stafford 2018 Prop Betting Results

Detroit Lions Defense vs 49ers Wide Recievers

Detroit Lions Defense vs Tight Ends

Patriots Prop Bet Results

The Patriots charts show two things that you might not expect. Tom Brady is a good “under” bet on passing yards and on defense the Pats have been very good at stopping opposing quarterbacks from throwing touchdowns.

Tom Brady Passing Yards Prop Bet Results

NFL Patriots Defense - Touchdown PropBet Results

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Patriots vs Lions Betting Pick:

The total has climbed since opening at 50 points and now is anywhere from 52.5 to 53.5. That works for me as I am on the under in this game. Lions Head Coach Patricia knows the offense better than anyone and the Patriots have not been the offensive Juggernaut they once were. Yes, the Lions did give up 48 points to the Jets but they played much better against the 49ers. On defense the Lions have been good taking away the tight ends and wide receivers. The Lions are vulnerable to the run but that is not the Patriots strength on offense.

Pick: Under 53.5

Score Prediction: Patriots 24 – Lions 20

See NFL Player Prop Betting Predictions for Week 3 at PropBets.Football